Bangladesh has a new PM, government. It’s time for a Delhi-Dhaka recalibration

Context & The Gist

The recent swearing-in of Tarique Rahman as Prime Minister of Bangladesh marks a pivotal moment in India-Bangladesh relations. This follows a period of political transition after the ousting of Sheikh Hasina and the Awami League. The article highlights the need for a ‘reset’ in ties, acknowledging past strains – particularly during the previous BNP government (2001-2006) – and the potential for renewed cooperation given shared interests. The core argument is that while challenges remain, a pragmatic approach from both sides, prioritizing long-term stability and mutual benefit, is crucial.

The article emphasizes the importance of India adapting to the new political landscape in Bangladesh, recognizing the need for both prudence and magnanimity in its approach. It suggests that while New Delhi should address its concerns, it must also demonstrate long-term vision and avoid overly assertive rhetoric.

Key Arguments & Nuances

• Historical Context: The article draws parallels between the current situation and the previous BNP-Jamaat coalition government (2001-2006), noting similar points of contention like violence against minorities and the presence of insurgent groups.
• India’s Engagement: India’s recent outreach to Rahman, including high-level attendance at events, signals a willingness to engage with the new government.
• Challenges Posed by Jamaat-e-Islami: The strengthened position of the Jamaat-e-Islami, particularly in border areas, raises security concerns for India.
• Sheikh Hasina’s Case: The extradition request for Sheikh Hasina is a sensitive issue, with New Delhi unlikely to comply given concerns about the fairness of the ICT verdict.
• Geopolitical Competition: China and Pakistan’s increasing engagement with Bangladesh add another layer of complexity to the relationship.
• Rahman’s Signals: Rahman’s campaign rhetoric and party manifesto suggest a willingness to uphold religious freedom and communal harmony, offering a potential basis for improved ties.

UPSC Syllabus Relevance

• Polity: India’s foreign policy, bilateral relations, and constitutional provisions related to extradition.
• International Relations: India’s neighborhood policy, regional security, and geopolitical dynamics in South Asia.
• Governance: Issues related to minority rights, internal security, and the role of non-state actors.

Prelims Data Bank

• Bangladesh Liberation War (1971): India played a crucial role in the liberation of Bangladesh.
• India-Bangladesh Border: Approximately 4,096 km long, making it the longest land border India shares with any country.
• Constitutional Amendment (Bangladesh): Bangladesh's constitution declares it a secular nation, though this has been challenged at times.
• Jamaat-e-Islami: A conservative Islamist political party in Bangladesh with a history of opposition to India.
• International Crimes Tribunal (ICT): Established in Bangladesh to prosecute individuals accused of war crimes during the 1971 Liberation War.

Mains Critical Analysis

The shift in power in Bangladesh presents both challenges and opportunities for India. A PESTLE analysis can help understand the multifaceted implications:

• Political: The new government’s stance on key issues like security cooperation, extradition, and minority rights will be crucial. The influence of the Jamaat-e-Islami within the ruling coalition is a significant concern.
• Economic: Continued economic cooperation, including trade and connectivity projects, is vital for both countries. India’s investments in Bangladesh and the potential for increased trade are key areas.
• Social: Maintaining communal harmony and protecting minority rights are essential for stability and preventing radicalization.
• Technological: Cooperation in areas like digital infrastructure and cybersecurity can enhance bilateral ties.
• Legal: The extradition request for Sheikh Hasina presents a legal and diplomatic dilemma for India.
• Environmental: Addressing shared environmental challenges, such as water management and climate change, requires collaborative efforts.

A critical gap lies in the potential for domestic political considerations in India to overshadow long-term strategic interests. The article rightly points to the need for “magnanimity” from the larger player (India), implying a willingness to prioritize stability and cooperation over short-term political gains. The historical baggage of mistrust and the influence of extremist elements require careful navigation.

The article suggests that India needs to be pragmatic and avoid imposing conditions that could destabilize the new government. A focus on building trust and fostering mutual understanding is essential.

Value Addition

• Joint Rivers Commission (JRC): Established in 1972, the JRC aims to address water-sharing issues between India and Bangladesh.
• Sheikh Hasina-Narendra Modi Joint Declaration (2019): This declaration outlined a roadmap for enhanced cooperation in various areas, including trade, connectivity, and security.
• Indo-Bangladesh Protocol on Trade, Transit and Cooperation (IBPTC): Facilitates trade and transit between the two countries.

Context & Linkages

This earlier article provides the immediate backdrop to the current situation, detailing the BNP’s landslide victory and the challenges facing Tarique Rahman. It reinforces the need for India to reassess its approach to Bangladesh and highlights the potential for a reset in ties. It also foreshadows the issues of security cooperation and the status of Sheikh Hasina, which are central to the current discussion.

This article further elaborates on the potential for a Delhi-Dhaka reset, emphasizing Rahman’s pledges regarding religious freedom and communal harmony. It also acknowledges the challenges related to the Jamaat-e-Islami and the sensitive issue of Hasina’s extradition, aligning with the concerns raised in the current editorial.

This article highlights the recent deterioration in India-Bangladesh relations due to protests and anti-India rhetoric. It underscores the importance of insulating the relationship from short-term political considerations, a point echoed in the current editorial’s call for “long-termism and sobriety.”

This article demonstrates how easily political tensions can spill over into other areas of bilateral relations, even seemingly apolitical ones like sports. It serves as a cautionary tale about the need for careful diplomacy and avoiding actions that could further strain ties.

This article provides context on the political instability in Bangladesh following Khaleda Zia’s death and the challenges facing Tarique Rahman in unifying the BNP. It highlights the resurgence of extremist groups and the need for strong leadership to maintain stability, factors that directly impact India’s security concerns.

The Way Forward

• Pragmatic Engagement: India should maintain open channels of communication with the Rahman government, focusing on areas of mutual interest.
• Security Cooperation: Strengthen intelligence sharing and border security cooperation to address the threat posed by insurgent groups and extremist elements.
• Economic Diplomacy: Continue investing in economic projects that benefit both countries, promoting trade and connectivity.
• Minority Rights: Advocate for the protection of minority rights and communal harmony in Bangladesh.
• Diplomatic Sensitivity: Handle the extradition request for Sheikh Hasina with utmost sensitivity, considering the political implications and legal concerns.
• Regional Dialogue: Engage in broader regional dialogue to address shared challenges and promote stability in South Asia.