Context & The Gist
The recent lapse of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) between the US and Russia, the last remaining nuclear arms control treaty, is a significant development in global security. This article highlights how this collapse signals a shift in US strategy – away from treaty-based limitations and towards unconstrained deterrence – and the potential ramifications for global nuclear stability. It argues that India, rather than remaining passive, must actively engage with major powers to shape new norms and stabilizing mechanisms in a world increasingly characterized by nuclear multipolarity.
The central argument is that the end of START isn't just a bilateral issue between the US and Russia, but a global one. The absence of formal arms control could encourage other nations to pursue nuclear options, necessitating proactive diplomacy from India.
Key Arguments & Nuances
- Shift in US Strategy: The Trump administration prioritizes technological advantage and flexible force postures over legally binding treaties, viewing the latter as outdated constraints.
- Asymmetry in US-Russia Relations: Despite seeking stable relations, the US doesn't aim for codified equivalence with Russia, given the significant economic and technological disparity.
- Impact Beyond US-Russia: The collapse of START will likely fuel an arms race, prompting states like China, Europe (a potential “Eurodeterrent”), and East Asian nations (Japan & South Korea) to reassess their nuclear postures.
- India's Role: India must proactively engage in shaping new norms and stabilizing mechanisms, rather than being a bystander in this evolving nuclear landscape.
- Novel Systems: The emergence of hypersonic vehicles and dual-capable missiles, which fall outside the scope of existing treaties, further complicates the situation.
UPSC Syllabus Relevance
- GS Paper II: International Relations – US-Russia relations, nuclear proliferation, India’s foreign policy, and its role in global security.
- GS Paper III: Security – Issues related to internal and external security, including nuclear security and arms control.
- GS Paper III: Economy – Impact of geopolitical events on India’s economic interests and energy security.
Prelims Data Bank
- START Treaty (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty): Capped US and Russian arsenals at 1,550 deployed strategic warheads and 700 deployed delivery systems.
- Hypersonic Vehicles: Missiles that travel at five times the speed of sound or faster.
- Dual-Capable Missiles: Missiles that can carry both conventional and nuclear warheads.
- SHANTI Act (Sustainable Harnessing and Advancement of Nuclear Energy for Transforming India Bill, 2025): Allows up to 49% FDI in certain nuclear activities.
- Civil Liability for Nuclear Damage Act (CLNDA): Previously held suppliers liable for nuclear accidents, hindering foreign vendor participation.
Mains Critical Analysis
The collapse of START presents a complex set of challenges and opportunities for India. A Political analysis reveals a shifting global order where traditional arms control mechanisms are eroding, demanding a recalibration of India’s foreign policy. Economically, a renewed arms race could divert resources from development, impacting India’s growth trajectory. Socially, increased nuclear proliferation raises existential security concerns. Technologically, India needs to invest in its own nuclear capabilities and monitoring systems. Legally, India needs to be prepared to navigate a world with fewer legally binding constraints on nuclear weapons. Environmentally, the potential for nuclear conflict poses catastrophic risks.
The core issue is the erosion of the rules-based international order and the rise of a more fluid and unpredictable nuclear landscape. The implications for India are significant, as it faces a more complex security environment and must navigate the competing interests of major powers. A critical gap lies in the lack of a multilateral framework to address the challenges posed by new technologies and the proliferation of nuclear weapons.
India’s strategic autonomy is paramount. While maintaining good relations with the US is important, India must avoid being drawn into a bipolar confrontation. Instead, it should advocate for a more inclusive and multilateral approach to arms control, involving all major nuclear powers, including China.
Value Addition
- Nuclear Doctrine of India (2003): Outlines India’s commitment to ‘No First Use’ of nuclear weapons, but reserves the right to retaliate with massive force in case of a nuclear attack.
- Atomic Energy Regulatory Board (AERB): India’s regulatory body for nuclear safety and security.
- Quote: “Arms control is not about being nice to your adversaries; it is about protecting your own interests.” – Henry Kissinger
Context & Linkages
On mute: on the U.S., geopolitical turmoil, India’s response
This past article highlights India’s tendency towards a cautious response to US unilateral actions. The current article builds on this by suggesting that India must move beyond a reactive stance and proactively shape the global nuclear order, rather than simply reacting to the actions of others. It emphasizes the need for strategic autonomy, a theme also present in the previous editorial.
Welcome deescalation: on Donald Trump, Greenland and Europe
This article discussed the unpredictable nature of US foreign policy under Trump. The current article reinforces this point, demonstrating how the US’s withdrawal from arms control treaties adds to the instability of the international system. Both articles underscore the need for India to prepare for a world where the US is less reliable as a partner in maintaining global order.
Nuclear power expansion is an R&D challenge
This article focuses on India’s domestic nuclear energy program. The current article provides the broader geopolitical context for this program, highlighting the need for India to strengthen its nuclear capabilities in a world where arms control is weakening. Both articles emphasize the importance of nuclear technology for India’s future.
The opening up of its nuclear value chain will aid India’s efforts to achieve energy security
This article details the SHANTI Act and its implications for India’s nuclear expansion. The current article underscores the importance of this expansion in the context of a changing global security landscape. Both articles highlight India’s commitment to nuclear energy as a key component of its energy security strategy.
The Way Forward
- Proactive Diplomacy: Engage with all major nuclear powers (US, Russia, China, Europe) to explore new arms control frameworks.
- Strengthen Deterrence: Continue to invest in India’s nuclear capabilities and maintain a credible minimum deterrence posture.
- Multilateralism: Advocate for a more inclusive and multilateral approach to arms control, involving all relevant stakeholders.
- Technology Development: Invest in research and development of advanced nuclear technologies and monitoring systems.
- Strategic Partnerships: Forge partnerships with like-minded countries to promote nuclear security and non-proliferation.