Fear of Tehran’s regime is receding in Iran

Context & The Gist

The article discusses the recent wave of protests in Iran, beginning in late December 2025, triggered by economic grievances – a sliding currency and rising prices. This isn't an isolated event; protests have become a recurring feature of Iranian political life, stemming from the gap between state promises and lived realities. The central thesis is that a significant shift is occurring: a diminishing fear of the regime, evidenced by increasingly bold displays of dissent and a demand for fundamental change beyond mere economic relief.

The protests highlight a growing disconnect between the Iranian people and their government, fueled by economic hardship and a perceived lack of political freedom. This article suggests that the current unrest represents a deeper challenge to the legitimacy of the Iranian regime than previous iterations.

Key Arguments & Nuances

• Recurring Protests: Iran has witnessed repeated protest cycles (2009, 2019, 2022, 2025/2026) each sparked by different triggers but united by underlying discontent.
• Shifting Political Agency: Protesters are increasingly self-organized, communicating directly and refusing to rely on intermediaries. The slogan "Don't be afraid, we are all together" exemplifies this.
• Regime Response: The regime consistently frames protests as externally instigated ("terrorists," "foreign masterminds") to avoid addressing internal issues and maintain control.
• "Tutelary Democracy": Iran operates as a system of managed pluralism, where elections are largely performative and genuine accountability is limited.
• "Zan, Zendegi, Azadi": This slogan ("Women, Life, Freedom") represents a challenge to the regime's gendered authority and its claim to divine legitimacy.
• Domestic Focus: Protesters are rejecting the regime's focus on regional issues ("Neither Gaza nor Lebanon...") and demanding solutions to domestic problems.
• Internet Shutdown: The regime's response includes internet shutdowns to suppress coordination and control information flow.

UPSC Syllabus Relevance

• GS Paper II: International Relations – Iran’s internal dynamics, its regional role, and its relationship with major powers.
• GS Paper II: Governance – Understanding different forms of political systems (tutelary democracy) and the challenges of governance in authoritarian contexts.
• GS Paper I: Social Issues – The role of social movements and protests in bringing about political and social change.

Prelims Data Bank

• Mahsa Amini: Her death in 2022 sparked widespread protests focused on women's rights and personal freedoms.
• "Zan, Zendegi, Azadi": (Women, Life, Freedom) – The central slogan of the 2022 protests and continues to resonate in current unrest.
• Masoud Pezeshkian: Current President of Iran.
• Ali Khamenei: Supreme Leader of Iran.
• Tutelary Democracy: A system where elections are held but are heavily controlled and manipulated by the ruling elite.

Mains Critical Analysis

The situation in Iran presents a complex interplay of political, economic, and social factors. A PESTLE analysis can help dissect the core issues:

• Political: The regime's authoritarian nature, lack of political freedoms, and reliance on repression are key drivers of discontent. The "tutelary democracy" model fosters cynicism and limits genuine political participation.
• Economic: A struggling economy, high inflation, currency devaluation, and limited economic opportunities are fueling public anger. Western sanctions and internal mismanagement exacerbate these problems.
• Social: Deep-seated social grievances, particularly regarding women's rights and personal freedoms, are at the forefront of the protests. The "Zan, Zendegi, Azadi" slogan encapsulates this.
• Technological: The regime's attempts to control information through internet shutdowns demonstrate the power of technology in both suppressing and enabling dissent.
• Legal: The lack of an independent judiciary and the arbitrary application of laws contribute to a sense of injustice and impunity.
• Environmental: While not directly mentioned in the article, environmental issues (water scarcity, pollution) also contribute to social unrest in Iran.

The critical gap lies in the regime's inability or unwillingness to address the root causes of the protests. Its reliance on repression and externalizing blame only serves to deepen the crisis of legitimacy. The lifting of fear, as highlighted in the article, is a significant development, suggesting that the regime's traditional methods of control are becoming less effective.

Value Addition

• The Green Movement (2009): Protests following the disputed 2009 presidential election, focused on electoral fraud and demanding greater political freedoms.
• 2019 Fuel Protests: Nationwide protests triggered by a sudden increase in fuel prices, resulting in a violent crackdown by the government.
• Mahsa Amini Case (2022): The death of Mahsa Amini while in police custody for allegedly violating hijab rules sparked widespread protests, particularly among women.

Context & Linkages

This earlier article provides the immediate backdrop to the current protests, detailing the initial triggers (economic grievances) and the scale of the unrest. It highlights the continuity of protest cycles in Iran and the regime's consistent response of repression. The current article builds upon this context by emphasizing the shift in political agency and the diminishing fear of the regime.

This article connects the internal unrest to Iran's broader geopolitical situation, including its economic challenges, regional conflicts, and strained relations with the West. It underscores the interconnectedness of domestic and foreign policy issues in Iran and the regime's tendency to blame external forces for internal problems. The current article focuses more specifically on the internal dynamics of the protests and the changing attitudes of the Iranian population.

The Way Forward

• Dialogue & Reform: The regime needs to initiate a genuine dialogue with the Iranian people and address their economic and political grievances. Meaningful reforms are essential to restore trust and legitimacy.
• Economic Diversification: Reducing reliance on oil revenues and diversifying the economy can help mitigate the impact of sanctions and create more economic opportunities.
• Respect for Human Rights: Ending the repression of dissent, releasing political prisoners, and respecting fundamental human rights are crucial steps towards building a more just and stable society.
• Re-engagement with the World: A more constructive engagement with the international community can help address Iran's economic challenges and reduce regional tensions.
• Addressing Social Grievances: Addressing issues related to gender inequality, social freedoms, and cultural expression is essential to address the underlying causes of discontent.