At Davos, speeches by Trump and Carney frame a demise. But there’s another perspective that got lost

Context & The Gist

The article reports on contrasting speeches delivered at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos by US President Donald Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. This occurred against the backdrop of growing concerns about the decline of the “rules-based international order.” Trump glorified colonialism and asserted American hegemony, while Carney acknowledged the failures of the existing order and advocated for a more pragmatic approach for middle powers. The core argument is that the traditional framework is fracturing, and the Global South, particularly India, faces a complex challenge of balancing values with the need for development in this new reality.

Key Arguments & Nuances

• The Demise of the ‘Rules-Based Order’:** Both Trump and Carney implicitly acknowledged the weakening of the existing international order, but offered drastically different visions for the future. Trump signaled a return to unilateralism and national interests, while Carney proposed a path for middle powers to navigate a more fragmented world.
• Trump’s Rhetoric & Pragmatism: Despite his inflammatory rhetoric, Trump displayed some pragmatism, such as backing away from a potential forced acquisition of Greenland. This suggests a calculated approach to projecting power, even within his disruptive style.
• The Global South’s Dilemma: The article highlights the unique position of countries like India, which have historically been disadvantaged by the existing order. These nations must prioritize poverty reduction and opportunity while navigating a world where traditional alliances and norms are eroding. This means balancing idealistic principles with practical considerations.
• Carney’s ‘Values-Based Realism’:** Carney’s approach emphasizes leveraging national resources and forging minilaterals to increase negotiating power. This is presented as a viable strategy for middle powers to assert their interests in a changing world.

UPSC Syllabus Relevance

• GS Paper II: International Relations: Impact of power transitions on global governance, changing dynamics of multilateral institutions, and the rise of new power centers.
• GS Paper II: Governance: Implications of global political shifts for India’s foreign policy and development priorities.
• GS Paper III: Economy: The role of international trade and economic cooperation in a fragmented global order.

Prelims Data Bank

• World Economic Forum (WEF): An international organization for public-private cooperation, founded in 1971. Its annual meeting takes place in Davos, Switzerland.
• Rules-Based International Order: A concept referring to a system of international relations governed by established norms, laws, and institutions, often associated with the post-World War II order led by the United States.
• Minilateralism: A form of international cooperation involving a small number of states, often with specific and limited objectives.
• Arctic Economy: The economic activities related to the Arctic region, including resource extraction, shipping, and tourism.

Mains Critical Analysis

The article presents a critical juncture in global affairs, marked by the potential unraveling of the post-World War II international order. The contrasting speeches at Davos symbolize a broader shift towards multipolarity and a questioning of established norms.

Political (P)

The rise of nationalist and populist leaders like Trump challenges the foundations of multilateralism and international cooperation. This creates uncertainty and instability in the global political landscape. The article highlights the potential for a more fragmented world, where power is concentrated in the hands of a few dominant states.

Economic (E)

The erosion of the rules-based order could lead to increased protectionism and trade wars, disrupting global supply chains and hindering economic growth. The Global South, heavily reliant on international trade and investment, is particularly vulnerable to these disruptions. The article suggests that countries like India need to diversify their economic partnerships and strengthen their domestic economies to mitigate these risks.

Social (S)

Trump’s rhetoric, denigrating non-Western nationalities, reflects a broader trend of ethno-nationalism and xenophobia. This poses a threat to social cohesion and inclusivity, both within and between nations. The article implicitly acknowledges the need for a more equitable and just international order that respects diversity and promotes human rights.

Technological (T)

The control of critical minerals and technological advancements, as highlighted by Carney’s reference to Canada’s resources, is becoming a key source of geopolitical power. This underscores the importance of investing in research and development and securing access to essential technologies.

Legal (L)

The weakening of international institutions and norms raises questions about the enforceability of international law and the effectiveness of dispute resolution mechanisms. This could lead to a more anarchic international system, where powerful states are less constrained by legal obligations.

Environmental (E)

The article doesn’t directly address environmental issues, but the broader context of a fragmented global order suggests a potential weakening of international cooperation on climate change and other environmental challenges. This is particularly concerning given the urgency of addressing these issues.

Value Addition

• The Responsibility to Protect (R2P): A global political norm that seeks to ensure the international community’s responsibility to intervene in situations of mass atrocities. Trump’s rhetoric challenges the principles underlying R2P.
• Non-Aligned Movement (NAM): Historically, India has been a prominent member of NAM, advocating for a more independent and equitable international order. The current geopolitical context may necessitate a renewed focus on NAM principles.
• Quote: “Power that is sustainable is rarely belligerent.” – This quote from the article emphasizes the importance of diplomacy and cooperation in maintaining a stable international order.

Context & Linkages

This past article provides context for understanding Trump’s pragmatic side, as highlighted in the current piece. Both articles demonstrate a pattern of Trump using assertive rhetoric but ultimately engaging in negotiation. It reinforces the idea that his actions are often calculated, even if they appear chaotic.

The earlier article’s critique of powerful leaders focusing on grand ambitions before addressing domestic issues resonates with the current piece’s emphasis on the Global South’s priorities. Both articles suggest a need for leaders to be more grounded and responsive to the needs of their populations.

This article directly foreshadows the themes explored in the current piece – the potential for US isolationism and the resulting power vacuum. It provides a broader understanding of the forces driving the decline of the rules-based order and the implications for global governance.

This article highlights India’s need to navigate a complex geopolitical landscape dominated by a US under Trump. It underscores the importance of strategic autonomy and careful consideration of national interests, themes that are also relevant to the current discussion about the Global South’s response to a changing world order.

The Way Forward

• Strengthen Multilateral Institutions: Reform and revitalize international organizations like the UN to make them more representative and effective.
• Promote Minilateralism: India and other middle powers should actively participate in minilateral initiatives to advance their interests and build strategic partnerships.
• Invest in Domestic Capabilities: Focus on strengthening domestic economies, technological innovation, and social resilience to reduce vulnerability to external shocks.
• Advocate for a More Equitable Order: India should champion a more inclusive and equitable international order that addresses the concerns of the Global South.
• Strategic Autonomy: Maintain a degree of strategic independence to navigate a multipolar world and avoid being overly reliant on any single power.