Context & The Gist
The article highlights the growing concern over escalating greenhouse gas emissions, evidenced by record CO2 concentrations in 2024, despite a decade of the Paris Agreement.
The central thesis is that while enthusiasm for COP30 is waning due to geopolitical factors and a lack of significant progress, it remains the primary platform for international climate action, with India’s updated NDCs and National Adaptation Plan being key focal points.
Key Arguments & Nuances
- Ineffectiveness of Paris Agreement: Despite ten years, the Paris Agreement hasn't slowed down global greenhouse gas emissions; they've actually increased.
- Geopolitical Challenges: The US withdrawal under Trump and disillusionment among developing nations are undermining the multilateral climate process.
- Low Expectations for COP30: The upcoming COP30 in Brazil is anticipated to yield limited meaningful outcomes, with the host nation aiming to simply maintain engagement.
- India’s Role: India’s NDCs for 2035 and its first National Adaptation Plan are significant, but are likely to be modest given the targets set by other major emitters like China.
UPSC Syllabus Relevance
- GS Paper II: International Relations – Climate change negotiations, multilateral environmental agreements (Paris Agreement, COP conferences), and India’s foreign policy related to climate change.
- GS Paper III: Environment & Economy – Climate change, its impact on the Indian economy, and strategies for adaptation and mitigation.
- GS Paper III: Science & Technology – Understanding the science behind climate change, greenhouse gas emissions, and technological solutions for climate action.
Prelims Data Bank
- Paris Agreement (2015): An international treaty on climate change, aiming to limit global warming to well below 2, preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels.
- COP (Conference of the Parties): The decision-making body of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
- NDC (Nationally Determined Contribution): National plans outlining how countries will reduce their emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change under the Paris Agreement.
- World Meteorological Organization (WMO): A specialized agency of the United Nations responsible for weather, climate and water resources.
Mains Critical Analysis
The article underscores a critical juncture in global climate action. The continued rise in CO2 emissions despite the Paris Agreement highlights a significant implementation gap.
The political dimension, particularly the US’s fluctuating commitment and the concerns of developing nations, adds complexity.
From an Indian perspective, the focus on NDCs and the NAP is crucial, but the likely modest ambition reflects a realpolitik approach, balancing climate commitments with developmental needs.
The opportunity cost of inaction is immense, potentially leading to more severe climate impacts and hindering sustainable development.
Challenges
- Lack of ambitious commitments from major emitters.
- Geopolitical instability and shifting national priorities.
- Financing challenges for adaptation and mitigation in developing countries.
Opportunities
- Leveraging technological advancements for emission reduction.
- Promoting international cooperation and knowledge sharing.
- Integrating climate action into national development plans.
Value Addition
- UN Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI): Ranks countries based on their climate action.
- SC Judgment on Climate Change (M.C. Mehta v. Union of India): Recognized the right to a clean environment as a fundamental right.
- International Solar Alliance (ISA): An initiative launched by India and France to promote solar energy.
- Quote: “We are running out of time. We need urgent and ambitious climate action now.” – António Guterres, UN Secretary-General.
The Way Forward
- Immediate Measure: Strengthen international cooperation and ensure that developed countries fulfill their financial commitments to developing nations for climate action.
- Long-term Reform: Develop a more robust and enforceable framework for climate action, with clear targets, transparent monitoring, and effective mechanisms for accountability.
India should focus on enhancing its adaptation measures and promoting sustainable development pathways.